Morning, Calgary.

Here is the part of Calgary's housing conversation worth slowing down for this week.

A lot to price in. Here is the useful version.

- Nathaniel and Graham

What This Means: Sales are down 8.5% from last week, and there are slightly fewer homes under contract, but the more telling move is deal quality: collapsed deals jumped 36.4% while average days on market fell from 43 to 40. Buyers are still moving on the right homes, but they are less willing to stretch once financing, inspection, or price stops making sense. For sellers, the best offer this week is the cleanest one, not automatically the one with the flashiest number at the top.

On September 29, Calgary City Council unanimously voted to make public an early City administration document outlining options for the 2027-2030 budget cycle. One scenario in that document shows a 15% municipal property-tax increase in 2027 for a typical residential property assessed at $706,000. That is where the headline number came from. It is not a bill, and it is not an approved budget.

Why put a number like that on the table? City administration is trying to map the trade-offs of a fast-growing city with inflation, aging infrastructure, and growing demands on services such as transit, emergency response, and public safety. Lower increases can mean deferring pressure into the future. Higher increases can mean a bigger household cost now. Council will receive the complete draft budget in November, and the Mayor has said the early figures can change during deliberations.

Under the 15% scenario, the same guidance put the combined impact of projected tax and utility-fee changes at about $52 more per month for that typical household. That is a planning signal, not a final invoice. Still, it deserves attention because a fixed mortgage rate does not make the cost of owning a home fixed.

That is the part homeowners tend to discover one line at a time. The mortgage payment is obvious. Property tax, utilities, insurance, condo fees, and maintenance are quieter, right up until they are not. In a detached home, the roof and furnace do not accept “we did not budget for that” as a payment plan. In a condo, the monthly fee and reserve fund are just as important as the rate on the mortgage approval.

For buyers, the practical move is to compare two homes by the full monthly carrying cost, not the list price or payment quote alone. For owners coming up to renewal, pull out the annual bills now and divide them by 12 before the new payment arrives. You do not need to predict Council's final number to build a budget with some breathing room.

The City is still in the trade-off stage: lower increases can mean deferred pressure on infrastructure and services, while higher funding has a real household cost. That is a civic debate worth having. Your home budget should not wait for it to finish.

We have featured The Rise twice before, so this is not a fresh-building discovery. It is a follow-up: unit #402 is a top-floor, 973-square-foot corner unit with two sides of windows, a north and east wraparound balcony, and no upstairs neighbours.

The two-bed, two-bath layout brings quartz counters, a pantry, full-size laundry, a double-sink ensuite, one titled underground stall, and a $567.29 condo fee that covers heat, water, sewer, and more. The market artifact here is unit-level value. In condo buildings, layout, light, fee inclusions, and floor position can matter more than the street address alone.

🚈 The Green Line downtown route is now locked in. Council approved the surface route from Event Centre/Grand Central Station to a new at-grade station on 10 Avenue near 2 Street S.W. We covered six stations getting real in August. This is the next chapter: route certainty and design work, not a finished transit line. For businesses and owners along 10 Avenue, the conversation now shifts from where the line goes to access, construction planning, and eventual connectivity.

🏗️ About 1,500 homes are breaking ground in east Calgary. RYCO Properties and Truman have started work on Hollins and Halstead, a 133-acre development between Stoney Trail and 84 Street N.E. along the future Memorial Drive extension. The plan calls for single-family homes, duplexes, townhomes, and multifamily options, with sales expected in early 2027. It is not current inventory yet, but it is a useful future-supply signal for the east side.

🏘️ Erlton's 45-unit housing question is not settled. Council postponed a final land-use vote for Onward Homes' below-market project on the former Enmax substation site until a development permit is approved. The proposal has already been reduced from 61 units and six storeys to 45 units and four storeys, but local traffic and scale concerns remain. This is the post-rezoning reality in miniature: more density conversations are moving back to the site-by-site level.

🏡 Alberta's affordable-housing pipeline gets a larger frame. Build Canada Homes and Alberta announced a framework targeting at least 1,460 affordable homes through about 21 projects. The federal contribution can reach $220 million, Alberta is committing more than $165 million, and other sources bring the projected investment to about $623 million. Individual projects still need approvals, but a multi-year pipeline matters more than a one-off announcement.

The read: Cougar Ridge has held up through the year better than a six-sale August might suggest: 73 year-to-date sales are only 5% below last year even as new listings are 19% lower, and the benchmark is up 2% to $796,925. At 1.10 months of supply, the annual picture is firmly a seller's market. August fell 40% year over year to six sales, but that is too small a sample to turn into a trend call. The useful owner read is price resilience with a smaller monthly deal pool.

Want the actual sold numbers for your neighbourhood?

The 15% number may change, but the habit behind it is useful now: budget the home you will actually own, not only the mortgage you were quoted.

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Talk soon,

Nathaniel and Graham

Terryberry Real Estate Group

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