Good morning Calgary,

The spring market we expected is not the spring market we are getting.

In today's edition:

Let's get into it.

What This Means: Buyer activity is surging with sales up 14.2%, but the average sold price dropped 6.4% to $648,032. The detached segment remains highly competitive and is holding its value, while the oversupplied condo market is pulling the overall average price down.

Active listings continue to build, giving buyers more options than they have had in years. The fact that price reductions are down 8.7% suggests sellers are holding firm for now, but the growing inventory means buyers who are patient and well capitalized have real negotiating power, especially in the apartment and townhome sectors.

The spring market Calgary buyers were counting on just hit a speed bump. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) slashed its 2026 national sales forecast from 5.1% growth to just 1%. The trigger was an oil price spike in late March that raised inflation fears, pushed bond yields up, and caused fixed mortgage rates to jump.

The Bank of Canada has held its rate at 2.25% since October 2025. Markets were pricing in a rate cut, but the conversation has shifted. Some analysts now suggest the next move could actually be a hike if inflation proves stubborn. For Calgary buyers sitting on the fence, this is the most important context of the spring.

Calgary is still outperforming the national market. While Toronto and Vancouver saw prices drop over 4% in the first quarter, Calgary's aggregate price was nearly flat, dipping just 0.5%. But local buyers are caught in the same national uncertainty. The perception that high rates are temporary is causing many to play the waiting game.

Waiting for rates to drop could be a trap. If the geopolitical noise settles and rates normalize, buyers will rush back in, and competition will spike. The honest advice is to avoid making a major financial decision based on global headlines. Make it based on your own timeline, your own budget, and the specific property type you need.

If you are trying to time your move in this shifting environment, reply to this email. We can look at the data for your specific neighbourhood and property type.

This 2025 built architectural statement in Briar Hill spans nearly 4,000 square feet of above-grade living space. Designed by R-EID Studio, the south-facing property features unequalled city views from every level. The finish quality is exceptional, featuring quartzite stone, matte white California Faucets, and a Lutron smart home system.

The main floor boasts 12-foot ceilings and a 36-foot-wide folding door that blends indoor and outdoor living. It includes a 400 square foot dedicated gym, a serene office, and heated floors in the walkout basement and garage. This is a showcase of what the luxury new-build segment looks like in Calgary right now. While the broader market wrestles with rate uncertainty, this kind of bespoke, never-occupied product occupies its own lane entirely.

🏘️ Calgary's $251M federal housing fund is safe for now. Mayor Farkas confirmed yesterday that Calgary will continue receiving its Housing Accelerator Fund despite the blanket rezoning repeal that passed on April 8. The replacement plan is still being debated, with councillors pointing toward Local Area Plans and targeted density.

📉 Calgary rents are falling and landlords are competing. Calgary's average asking rent hit $1,869 in March, down 4.2% year over year. With a record 10,150 rental units completed in 2025, vacancy rates are climbing. Landlords are now offering free months, early move-ins, and free parking to fill units.

🏢 Calgary condo market hits its deepest buyer's territory since 2008. Condo sales dropped 28.8% in March, and inventory climbed to nearly 1,800 units. With 4.62 months of supply, buyers in this segment have negotiating leverage not seen in over 15 years.

📊 Calgary is outperforming Toronto and Vancouver. Royal LePage's Q1 2026 data shows Calgary's aggregate home price fell just 0.5% year over year to $689,100, while Toronto dropped 4.7% and Vancouver dropped 4.5%. Calgary remains one of the best-performing major markets in Canada.

That’s all for this week, Calgary. If this edition helped you make a little more sense of the market, forward it to someone who’d appreciate the breakdown too.

Talk soon,

Nathaniel and Graham | YYC Housing Pulse Team