Good morning Calgary,

The Bank of Canada is keeping rates parked, which means the mortgage renewal wave is about to get very real for a lot of homeowners. In today’s edition:

Let’s get into it.

- Nathaniel and Graham

What This Means: The spring market urgency is officially winding down. Active listings are up, sales are down slightly, and average days on market have stretched to 38. With 2,742 vacant listings sitting empty, buyers have more room to breathe and negotiate. Sellers need to adjust their expectations. The homes that are priced sharply are still moving, but the ones testing the limits are sitting.

We have talked a lot about Calgary's split market and condo oversupply. But there is a quieter force shaping the summer market: the mortgage renewal wave.

With the Bank of Canada holding its benchmark rate at 2.25% through the foreseeable future, the math is changing fast for homeowners who locked in during the 2020 and 2021 rate floor. According to recent estimates from Ratehub, borrowers renewing a 5-year fixed mortgage in 2026 could see their monthly payment increase by an average of $622. That is a 24% jump for the average household.

For Calgary, this is not just a personal finance story. It is an inventory story.

When payments jump that sharply, it forces decisions. Some owners will absorb the hit by cutting back elsewhere. Others will decide that holding onto an investment condo or a stretched primary residence no longer makes sense. We are already seeing active listings climb and vacant inventory rise. The renewal cliff is likely one of the hidden drivers pushing more product onto the market.

For buyers, this means the leverage you are feeling right now is not an accident. More sellers are motivated to move on rather than renew at higher rates. For sellers, it means you are competing against people who might be highly motivated to close a deal before their term is up.

The renewal wave is peaking this year and next. If you are holding an investment property or thinking about downsizing, the best time to run the math is before the bank sends the renewal letter.

317 19 Avenue SW #401 is a top-floor end unit in Mission that knows how to make an entrance. Built in 1981, it skips the cookie-cutter condo vibe entirely.

You get 1,147 square feet of two-storey loft living, soaring ceilings, dramatic walls of glass, and treetop views. It features two bedrooms, two bathrooms, a three-sided fireplace, and French doors opening to a private balcony. The $1,085 monthly condo fee is hefty, but it includes electricity and heat. Listed at $399,900, it is a rare find for someone who wants walkability to 4th Street and 17th Avenue without sacrificing architectural personality.

💸 The Bank of Canada is expected to stay parked. Market forecasts suggest the Bank of Canada will hold its benchmark rate at 2.25% through December 2026. Buyers waiting for a massive rate cut to save affordability might need a new strategy.

🏗️ Alberta housing starts hit a two-year low. ATB Financial reports that provincial housing starts moderated for the third straight month, down 23% year-to-date. Calgary is leading the slowdown, particularly in apartment construction, which could tighten future inventory.

🗺️ The Calgary Plan gets punted to 2027. City council voted 13-2 to delay the 30-year overarching growth plan until early next year. With blanket rezoning repealed and the Calgary Plan stalled, the rules for where new housing goes remain unsettled.

📉 National housing starts are also slipping. CMHC reported a 6% drop in the annual pace of Canadian housing starts in May, noting that regulatory and structural factors are holding back the supply needed to balance the market.

If you know someone staring down a mortgage renewal, forward this to them.

Have a Calgary real estate question? Reply to this email and ask us.

See you next week,

Nathaniel and Graham | YYC Housing Pulse Team

Terryberry Real Estate Group